某汽车公司销售预测研究—个案研究外文翻译资料

武汉理工大学毕业论文（设计）

外文翻译

原文1

SALES FORECASTING STUDY IN AN AUTOMOBILE COMPANY- A CASE STUDY

Priyansha Chouksey, Aparna Deshpande, Praveer Agarwal, Dr. R.C. Gupta

Abstract: Sales forecasting is the most important activity of the Production planning and control and success of the firm is highly driven by accuracy of the forecasting. Sales forecasting aims to determine the demand of the product which helps in determining the available facilities and resources with the firm to meet the demand and procure more if necessary. In this research work, various critical success factors were identified and their overall and individual impact on sales forecasting was determined on the basis of real-time primary data and secondary data of the automobile firm situated at Pithampur specifically in the commercial vehicle segment study were done. In this paper, an attempt is made to apply regression analysis on external and internal factors to forecast sales of the company. This method was chosen as the best among others as it analyzes all driving factors of the sales unlike time-series forecasting technique. This study adds to the literature of sales forecasting, an approach that analyze and compare various macro and micro factors sensitivity towards the forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Sales Forecasting, Regression Model, Automobile industry, Internal and External factors.

1. INTRODUCTION

Forecasts play a key role in the management of operations because they can provide rational guidelines and actions for activities that must be managed in a competitive and uncertain environment which makes forecasting an integral part of decision making activities of management. Forecasting the sales of products with high implied demand uncertainty is difficult as compared to those with less implied demand uncertainty. According to Diwakar and Dalpati, there is a time lag between awareness of impending events and occurrence of that event and this lead time is the main reason for planning and forecasting. If the lead time is zero or very small, there is no need for forecasting. According to Lihua Yang and Baolin Li, strategies and techniques to improve the sales forecasting accuracy has become a hot spot for automotive industry, which can help companies to improve the competitiveness of marketing. According to Dieter and Yerzdi, the Indian automobile industry needs to develop technologies and capabilities to produce vehicles that meet future market needs, which makes sales forecasting an important driving factor to fulfill these needs. According to Rashmi Sharma and Ashok Sinha the automotive sector is one of the core industries of the Indian economy. Sales forecasting is crucial because without a proper sales forecast a company cannot program to attain the desired sales and marketing objectives. It is based on a number of assumptions regarding customer and competitor behavior as well as the market environment, and therefore, its reliability depends upon a number of uncertain parameters. Management analyzes previous sales experience by product lines, territories, classes of customers, and other relevant details. Management needs to consider a time line long enough to detect trends and patterns in the growth and the decline of sales volume. The purpose of the research is to determine the factors that are responsible for the accuracy of a sales forecast. The forecasting technique used here is regression analysis, which helps compare the error between the actual available sales forecast and the calculated forecast.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

According to Patricia.et.al, at the organizational level, sales forecasting is very important to any retail business as its outcome is used by many functions in the organization: sales departments is able to get a good knowledge of the sales volume of each product; purchasing department is able to plan short- and long-term purchases; marketing department is able to plan its actions and assess the impact of different marketing strategies on sales volume; and finally logistics department is able to define specific logistic needs. Accurate forecasts of sales have the potential to increase the profitability of retailers by improving the chain operations efficiency and minimizing wastes. Sales forecasting also considers the competitive position of the company with respect to its market share; research and development; quality of service, pricing and financing policies; and public image. Forecasters also evaluate the quality and quantity of the customer base to determine brand loyalty, response to promotional efforts, economic viability, and credit worthiness. Forecasters study the underlying assumptions of trend variations to understand the important relationships in determining the volume of sales. According to Bohanec.et.al, there are two main approaches in the literature to analyze the evolution of vehicle sales. The first one is to use a macro perspective and seek for the relationship between aggregate sales and associated macroeconomic indicators. Vehicles are treated as homogenous products, whereas product heterogeneity, brand differentiation, consumer preferences or vehicle characteristics are not paying much attention in this approach. The alternative approach has a micro perspective, paying more attention to consumer choices, vehicle properties as well as market structure and hedonic pricing. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages.

According to Lim, the automobile industry is characterized by a very volatile demand and impatient customers. Furthermore, globalization has grown longer procurement lead times of vehicle assembly plants which creates a challenge for automotive manufacturers to cleverly adjust production capacities with customer demands. These demands require short del

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