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Tencent Weixin—Welcome to the Age of Mobile Internet

原文作者Dick Wei, Evan Zhou 单位J.P.Morgan: Asia Pacific Equity Research

摘要：摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要摘要hellip;hellip;

关键词：关键词1； 关键词2； 关键词3；关键词4

随着时间的推移，中国进入了互联网时代。我们注意到，在中国移动互联网的生态系统正日趋成熟，1）随着信息碎片化的趋势大规模低成本（约1000元人民币）的智能手机普及率，2）广泛的战略服务提供商，运营商和硬件制造商，3）完全成熟的开发环境带来手机应用。Tencent增殖带头再次，从behind.Exponential增长之间的联盟联系列表基于多媒体即时信使是使它杀手应用程序在3G /智能手机的移动互联网时代，类似于手机短信已经在2G时代完成的。在所有的产品，我们看到腾讯的微信（微信）受惠，因为1支配地位）QQ专营集成2）成功的例证，以市场趋势和强大的研发能力，3）数据使用的担忧迅速反应先行者“适应”的最佳机会解决，主要的瓶颈解除，以及4）再次，整合娱乐基地的功能（如“手机摇”找朋友）。

最好的防守就是进攻。腾讯在游戏中的策略是扩大itsdesktop客户加盟到小屏幕。该公司正在开发更多的上游/下游的合作伙伴关系，以促进QQ/微信用户采用。我们相信，味辛将有助于迁移腾讯的庞大用户基础上的移动互联网深化中3G渗透率和低端智能手机采用。在另一方面，其广泛的知名度也吸引了一些高端的，非QQ用户拿起腾讯的产品，进一步增强了网络效应。
Strengthened专营权。买弱点。我们看到味辛投资的长期战略之一，腾讯，多领域的未来monetization.There可能是一些代价的道路，但在底线没有显著短期影响。股票的交易价是25.9x11e和21.0x12E earnings.We保持OWratingon的基本面强劲的背部和建议投资者积累进一步的潜在weaknessin市场动荡

外文文献出处：hellip;hellip;

附外文文献原文

Time for the age of Mobile Internet in China. We noted the ecosystem of mobile internet in China is becoming more matur efor mass adoption on the back of 1) accelerating low-cost (sub-Rmb1,000) smart phone penetration along with the trend of information fragmentation,2) wide range of strategic alliances among service providers, operators and hardware manu facturers,and 3) full-fledged development environment bringing proliferation of apps.Tencent takes the lead again, from behind.Exponential growth of contact-list-based multi-media instant messenger is making it the killer app in the 3G / smart phone mobile internet age, similar to what SMS has done in the 2G era. Among all the products we see Tencentrsquo;s Weixin(微信)stands the best chance to gain dominance because of 1) QQ franchise integration 2) successful lsquo;adaptationrsquo; from early movers exemplified swift response to market trend and strong Ramp;D capabilities, 3) data usage concerns addressed, major bottleneck lifted, and 4) once again, integrating entertainment base features (like “Phone Shaking” to find friends).

Best defense is a good offense. Tencents strategy in the game is to expand itsdesktop client franchise onto smaller screens. The company is working on moreupstream/downstream partnerships to facilitateQQ/Weixin user adoption. We believe Weixin will help migrating Tencentrsquo;s massive user base onto mobile internet amid deepening 3G penetration and low-end smartphones adoption. On the other hand, its wide-spread popularity also attracted some high-end, non-QQ users to pick up Tencentrsquo;s offerings, further enhancing the network effect.

Strengthened franchise. Buy on weakness. We see the Weixin investment a long-term strategic one to Tencent, with multiple areas for future monetization.There might be some expense down the road but no significant near-term impact on the bottom line. Stock is trading at 25.9x 11E and 21.0x 12E earnings.We maintain OWratingon the back of strong fundamentals and recommend investors to accumulate on further potential weaknessin market turmoil

Tencent is a leading internet media company in China. The companyrsquo;s QQ IM software has more than 600 million active users in China, making Tencent the largest online community in China.

Tencent operates one of the most visited portals in China, QQ.com (second only to Baidu in terms of traffic); Chinarsquo;s No 1 social networking website, Qzone; and a popular casual gaming portal, QQ Games. The company is also a leading player in

advanced causal game and MMORPG game segments.

Price target and valuation analysis

Our DCF-based Dec-11 price target of HK$260 implies, 39.2x FY11E, and 21.7x FY12E reported EPS, or 36.6x FY11E, and 29.7x FY12E adjusted EPS, on the back of 29.2%/23.2% FY11E/12E EPS growth.If we assume long-term CAGR growth of ~25%, our PT suggests a PEG of 1.2X.

Maintain OW, as one of top-pick of the year. Near-term share price drivers could be higher revenue driven by third-party apps contribution, new games launches, and better-than-expected ad growth with macro pick up and improving brand image.

QQ franchise integration. One of the key differentiators that made Weixin grow faster than its early-starting peers (Kik, WhatsApp, Miliao) is, again, the integration with Tencentrsquo;s existing franchise. Users can use Weixin to receive and reply QQ offline message, and manage QQ mailand Tencent Weibo private messages. The c700mnusers of Tencent QQ and Tencent Weibo will keep seamless contact with their existing QQ and Weibo friends, while being able to message their cell phone contacts on the same platform. This is key because people can save the trouble of using multiple apps for various communication purposes.

Another successful lsquo;adaptationrsquo; from early movers. Weixin was originally

published on Jan.21 2011, later than its domestic peer Miliao. After multiple radical changes in core functions, current version (ver 3.1) of Weixin improved its UI and user experience significantly by focusing on voice message and learning the merits from both domestic and international early movers. The design team, led by ex-Foxmail programmer Zhang Xiaolong, also introduced some handy, differentiating features to cater local preference.

Best defense is a good offense

Tencents strategy in the game is to expand their desktop client franchise onto smaller screens. The company currently does not intend to build smart phones by

themselves, but mobile internet strategy has become top priority internally and they will consider potential upstream/downstream partnerships to further build QQ/Weixin user adoption.

Recently,Guangdong Mobile entered into a partnership with Tencent to promote its new lsquo;WoPairsquo; monthly packages targeting at teenagers. With RMB 36, lsquo;WoPairsquo; users can enjoy free usage on any data used by Tencent Weixin (including te

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