经济政策不确定性对江苏省技术密集型产业出口贸易的影响外文翻译资料

经济政策不确定性对江苏省技术密集型产业出口贸易的影响

摘要：国外对于经济政策不确定性的研究主要集中在宏观和微观经济等方面，许多研究都得出了有价值的结论。经济政策不确定性来源于许多因素，早期有学者聚焦于政治不确定性，研究发现政治的不稳定会导致政策的频繁变动，进而影响经济生活中不确定性情况的出现。随后，Baker等人提出经济政策不确定性指数（EPU），该指数主要用来反映世界各大经济体经济和政策的不确定性。随着EPU的构建，相关学者们利用该指数进一步证实了经济政策不确定性会对经济增长产生负向影响。

关键词：经济政策不确定性； 贸易； 实证模型

引用文献一：

经济政策的不确定性和企业并购

原文作者 Xun Han Kexin Chen Xianjing Huang

单位 Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanning, Guangxi, 530003,

《经济政策的不确定性和企业并购》一文指出：由于政府经济政策的频繁调整以及国外各种不确定性经济情况的发生，会导致我国经济政策的不确定性水平持续上升。而政策不确定性的加剧势必会影响到我国小微企业的投资和金融决策等经济行为。该篇论文选取了上海和深圳股票交易市场中非金融类上市公司的数据，以2008年到2018年的数据为实验样本，来研究经济政策不确定性（EPU）与企业并购行为（Mamp;A）的关系。其研究表明，EPU的上升对企业并购行为起到了刺激作用，且这一作用在成熟发展的企业中更为明显。EPU与企业并购之间的关系受到企业管理水平、股票价格波动和融资约束等因素的影响。研究中还具体指出，当企业管理水平越高、股价波动越大、融资约束越小时，企业的并购规模大小受EPU的影响会越敏感。在进一步的研究中我们可以看到，EPU的上升在短期内明显促进了企业并购行为的提升，但这一情况在长期内并不存在。

作者在文中提到：企业并购作为资本市场中分配储存资源的重要手段之一，它在推动企业进行策略调整、资源整合以及产业升级等方面扮演着及其重要的角色。随后，作者从微观、部门、国家等三个层面分别解释了企业并购在资本市场中的作用。

首先，从微观层面来看，企业并购会对资源进行重新配置，将资源从效率低的企业转移到效率高的企业中，与此同时，并购通过对产业内部以及各产业间资源的重新整合，实现了成本的降低和效率的提升。据其数据显示，自2000年以来，我国上市公司的并购业务的成交量总体呈上升趋势。仅2018年，就有6283笔新的并购业务成交，这些业务总值180万人民币，同比增长2.7%。企业并购作为现代公司发展的方式之一，它在一定程度上能够优化资源配置，提高公司业绩以及扩大投资规模。然而，由企业并购和经济市场波动加剧所引起的股价崩盘风险问题也日益凸显。

其次，从部门层面来看，通过对企业各部门的资源整合与重组，并购能带来规模经济，范围经济或协同效应，进而提高企业价值和效率。企业并购能够在高标准的市场准入条件下，对产业内部和产业间进行资源的重新配置，从而实现产业整合、产业结构调整和产业升级的目标。

最后，从国家层面来看，寻找新的经济增长点并且规避系统性经济风险是我国宏观经济中一个非常重要的问题。随着我国经济增长进入“新常态”，萎缩的市场需求、高杠杆利率、僵尸公司里的活死人等问题日益显著。我国供给侧结构性改革在促进转变发展模式、优化经济结构、缓解资源配置不均等问题上起到了积极作用。而企业并购作为资本市场中对资源进行配置的主要手段，已然成为资本市场服务于国家策略调整和实体经济的重要任务。

2008年金融危机爆发后，我国政府出台了一系列财政政策、货币政策以及产业政策以期缓解国外经济衰退对我国宏观经济所造成的负面影响。经济政策作为政府进行宏观调控的重要手段之一，在调整投资结构，优化产业结构，提升制度环境的同时，也会对企业外部经营环境造成影响，而企业外部经营环境又能反作用于小微企业的投资、研发创新、金融资产配置、商业信贷和对未来的预测。根据Baker提出的EPU指数，我国经济政策的不确定性水平（EPU）自2012年起呈上升趋势，这可能与政府换届，一系列政策的撤销，新政策的颁布有关。

随后，作者针对以上情况，提出了了两种截然不同的情况。一个是，商业银行的信贷额度缩紧以及受EPU上升影响的外部投资者们的跟风行为，上述行为会导致金融成本和企业运营风险的增加，进而引起并购规模的缩小。另一个是，尽管EPU的增加给企业的投资和金融活动带来了更多的不确定，但是，这也意味着企业可以通过产业转型、资源整合以及凭借研发创新、并购抢占的市场份额来获得更多的利润。作者就以上问题进行了研究。

该篇文章利用2008-2018年上海和深圳股票交易市场中非金融类上市公司的数据，实证分析EPU上升对企业并购的影响，具体来看，有以下三步。作者首先从理论上解释了EPU上升对并购的作用机制，并提出了替代假设。其次，分析了公司管理、股价波动和并购金融限制的管理机制。最后，作者进一步讨论了EPU上升对并购绩效的影响。

基于上述内容，作者做出了如下假设：EPU的上升往往伴随着外部投资者对管理层监督难度的提高，这可能会导致管理层的过度投资和利己行为。具体来说，管理层的工资水平通常取决于公司的规模。在高EPU时期，管理者可以通过企业并购扩大公司规模，提高非货币性利润，并将并购的不利影响归结于政策变化，从而避免董事会对其不良管理的惩罚。此外，EPU的上升增加了企业外部融资的难度和经营风险，因此，企业会更倾向于通过并购实现财务协同和经营多元化。基于以上观点，作者首先提出了两个备选假设：

H1a:EPU的上升将抑制企业并购。

H1b:EPU的上升将促进企业并购。

随后，作者考虑到良好的公司管理环境有助于并购双方整合各种资源，抑制管理者的投机行为，促进差异化文化的快速融合，从而提高企业并购业绩。经研究发现，内部控制可以有效提高并购活动的风险防范能力，从而保证并购活动的顺利进行和协同效应的实现。企业并购业务的价值是由收购方和目标公司的价值共同决定的，双方价值的实现取决于内部管理制度的完善与否。因此，相对于公司管理水平较低的公司，EPU上升对并购的积极影响在公司管理较好的公司中会更强。基于此，提出第二个研究假设：

H2：EPU对并购的积极影响在公司治理水平越高的企业越显著在证券市场中，股票价值的信号传递机制将促进资源的优化配置。

接着，根据数据显示，EPU的上升显著增加了股票价格的波动性以及股票市场与宏观经济动态之间的非对称关系。在这一关系的影响下，市场的不完全性使得企业价值容易被错误估计。相较于股票市场中表现稳定的公司，EPU的上升使得外部投资者对股价波动程度高的企业有更强的反应倾向。因此，股价波动程度高的企业通过并购、多元化经营，实现外部资金内部化，增强了投资者信心，并且其自身的产业转型升级意愿更强。因此，EPU的上升将对此类企业的并购产生更显著的促进作用。鉴于此，作者提出了第三个假设：

H3：EPU的上升对并购的积极影响在股价波动水平较高的公司中更为显著。

然后，作者从融资约束的角度考虑。EPU通过融资约束程度和资金可得性两个渠道作用于企业的投资决策行为。国有企业和大型企业具有很强的融资优势，它们可以从资本市场和银行筹集到足够的资金，甚至超过其经营所需的资金，而民营企业和小型企业则很难从正规金融机构获得融资。受到强融资约束的企业很难从外部吸收到并购所需要的资金。而融资约束较弱的企业资金相对充裕，并购动机较强。因此，本文提出第四个假设：

H4：EPU上升对并购的积极影响在融资约束较少的企业中更为显著。

最后，作者以Baseline 模型为基础，构建回归模型，并进行稳健性检验。得出了如下结论：EPU的上升会对企业并购起到促进作用，并且这种作用在成熟企业中更为显著。EPU对并购交易规模的影响受公司管理水平、股价波动和融资约束的影响。具体表现为，公司管理水平和股价波动性较高、受融资约束较小的企业，其并购交易规模对EPU的变化更为敏感，进一步研究表明，EPU的上升在短期内会促进并购绩效的提升，但在长期内这种作用并不显著。

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Mergers and Acquisitions

Keywords: Economic Policy Uncertainly; Corporate merger and acquisition; Financing constraints; M amp; A performance

In recent years, the frequent adjustment of the governmentrsquo;s economic policies and the uncertainty of foreign economic situations have made the degree of uncertainty of Chinarsquo;s economic policies rise continuously. The increasing degree of policy uncertainty will inevitably affect the investment and financing decisions of micro enterprises. Then, how does economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affect mergers and acquisitions (Mamp;A) behavior? Whatrsquo;s the mechanism? Based on the above questions, this paper uses the data of non-financial listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2008 to 2018 as a sample to explore the relationship between EPU and Mamp;A. The study shows that rising EPU will promote corporate Mamp;A behavior, and this effect is more significant in mature companies. The relationship between EPU and Mamp;A is affected by corporate governance, stock price volatility and financing constraints. Specifically, the companyrsquo;s Mamp;A size is more sensitive to EPU with higher level of corporate governance, higher level of stock price volatility, and lesser financing constraints. Further research shows that the rise of EPU will significantly promote the improvement of Mamp;A performance in the short-term, but this effect does not exist in the long-term. Various robustness checks do not change the empirical results of this paper.

As an important means for the allocation of storage resources in the capital market, Mamp;A plays an important role in promoting corporate strategic adjustment, resource integration and industrial upgrading. At the micro level, Mamp;A have reallocated resources from low-productivity to high-productivity enterprises, and achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement through the reorganization of resources within and between industries. According to statistics, the size of Mamp;A deals of Chinarsquo;s listed companies is on the rise as a whole since 2000. In 2018 alone, there were 6,283 new Mamp;A deals with a total value of RMB180 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%. As a way of corporate development, Mamp;A can

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经济政策不确定性对江苏省技术密集型产业出口贸易的影响

摘要：Foreign Research on the uncertainty of economic policy mainly focuses on the macrocosm and microcosm and other aspects, and many studies have drawn valuable conclusions. Economic policy uncertainty comes from many factors. Early scholars focused on political uncertainty, and found that political instability would lead to frequent policy changes, and then affect the emergence of uncertainty in economic life. Subsequently, Baker et al. proposed the economic policy uncertainty index (EPU), which is mainly used to reflect the economic and policy uncertainty of the worldrsquo;s major economies. With the establishment of the EPU, scholars have used the index to further prove that economic policy uncertainty will have a negative impact on economic growth.

关键词： Economic policy uncertainty；Trade；Empirical models

引用文献一：

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Mergers and Acquisitions

Keywords: Economic Policy Uncertainly; Corporate merger and acquisition; Financing constraints; M amp; A performance

In recent years, the frequent adjustment of the governmentrsquo;s economic policies and the uncertainty of foreign economic situations have made the degree of uncertainty of Chinarsquo;s economic policies rise continuously. The increasing degree of policy uncertainty will inevitably affect the investment and financing decisions of micro enterprises. Then, how does economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affect mergers and acquisitions (Mamp;A) behavior? Whatrsquo;s the mechanism? Based on the above questions, this paper uses the data of non-financial listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2008 to 2018 as a sample to explore the relationship between EPU and Mamp;A. The study shows that rising EPU will promote corporate Mamp;A behavior, and this effect is more significant in mature companies. The relationship between EPU and Mamp;A is affected by corporate governance, stock price volatility and financing constraints. Specifically, the companyrsquo;s Mamp;A size is more sensitive to EPU with higher level of corporate governance, higher level of stock price volatility, and lesser financing constraints. Further research shows that the rise of EPU will significantly promote the improvement of Mamp;A performance in the short-term, but this effect does not exist in the long-term. Various robustness checks do not change the empirical results of this paper.

As an important means for the allocation of storage resources in the capital market, Mamp;A plays an important role in promoting corporate strategic adjustment, resource integration and industrial upgrading. At the micro level, Mamp;A have reallocated resources from low-productivity to high-productivity enterprises, and achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement through the reorganization of resources within and between industries. According to statistics, the size of Mamp;A deals of Chinarsquo;s listed companies is on the rise as a whole since 2000. In 2018 alone, there were 6,283 new Mamp;A deals with a total value of RMB180 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%. As a way of corporate development, Mamp;A can optimize resource allocation, improve corporate performance and expand investment scale to a certain extent. However, problems such as the stock price crash risk caused by Mamp;A and aggravated financial market volatility have also gradually highlighted. Through the integration and reorganization of resources among corporate departments, Mamp;A can bring economy of scale, economy of scope or synergies, so as to increase enterprise value and improve efficiency; at the sector level, Mamp;A can reallocate resources within and between industries, achieve the goals of industry integration, industrial restructuring and upgrading in the case of high requirement for market access for different industries. At the national level, finding new economic growth points and preventing systematic financial risks are important economic issues in macro-finance in China. With Chinarsquo;s economic growth entering a “new normal” stage, problems such as the shrinking market demand, high leverage ratio and the “living dead” of zombie companies have gradually become noticeable. Chinarsquo; s supply-side structural reform plays an active role in transforming the growth mode, optimizing the economic structure, and alleviating distortion of resource allocation. As the main method of resource allocation in the capital market, Mamp;A have become an important task for the capital market to serve the national strategic adjustment and the real economy.

After the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, China issued a series of fiscal policies, monetary policies and industrial policies to mitigate the negative impact of foreign economic recession on Chinarsquo;s macro economy. As an important means of macro-control by government, economic policies, while adjusting investment structure, optimizing industrial structure, and improving the institutional environment, will also have an impact on the external operating environment of enterprises, which in turn affects micro-enterprise investment, Ramp;D innovation, financial asset allocation, business credit supply and the analystsrsquo; earnings forecasts revisions. The data of Baker show that Chinarsquo;s EPU level has been on the rise since 2012, which may be related to a series of policies that have been withdrawn in recent years. On the one hand, the credit tight of commercial banks and the herd behavior of outside investors caused by the rise in EPU reduced the size of Mamp;A deals by increasing the financing costs and operating risks of enterprises; on the other hand, while the rise of EPU brings more uncertainty to the investment and financing activities of enterprises, it also means that companies will

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