物流效率对韩国农产品出口到新兴南方国家的影响分析外文翻译资料

An Analysis of the Effect of Logistics Efficiency on the Export of Korean Agricultural Products to New Southern Countries

Hyun-Hee Park

Department of International Trade, Dankook University, South Korea

Sung-Je Cho^dagger;

Department of International Trade, Cheongju University, South Korea

Abstract

Purpose – This paper analyzes the effect of the agricultural export market for Koreas new southern countries in consideration of logistics efficiency. In order to expand Korean agricultural exports, the logistics performance index, national income, per capita income, consumer price index, distance and FTA are included. Through empirical analysis, the impact of logistics efficiency on Korean agricultural exports is derived and measures are proposed to expand exports in the future.

Design/methodology – The analytical model of this study takes into account the import demand factors of the new southern countries for Korean agricultural exports. A research model was established based on prior research based on the gravity model, which is widely used in international trade effect analysis. In particular, logistics efficiency measures the effect on Korean agricultural exports using the logistics performance index and examines the effect by deriving factors for export expansion.

Findings – The main findings of this study can be summarized as follows: The higher the logistics efficiency of the new southern countries in exporting Korean agricultural products, the more directly they have an effect on expanding exports. In addition, it was analyzed that the expansion of Korean agricultural exports has a positive effect on the other countries national income, per capita income, consumer price index, population, and FTA. Based on these results, the importance of efficient logistics management in agricultural exports has been emphasized.

Originality/value – There are not many studies on the export of agricultural products by logistics efficiency. However, prior studies that have adapted to manufacturing and other areas suggest that logistics efficiency has a direct effect on exports. This study suggests that Korean agricultural products are directly effective in exporting to new southern countries in terms of logistics efficiency. This can be an important time point in recognizing that logistics capabilities are important to ensure new books and the safety of agricultural products.

Keywords: Agricultural Product Export, Gravity Model, Logistic Performance Index (LPI), New Southern Policy

JEL Classifications: F10, F14, Q17

1. Introduction

The global economy has maintained steady growth, pushing for trade liberalization through the market opening, and Koreas trade volume has also grown rapidly. Recently, however, Koreas trade has faced new challenges due to the U.S.-China trade war and Japans enforcement of export self-regulation. The new market is expected to have a significant impact on future changes in the environment of Koreas trade, as well as on the economy in

• Corresponding author: profcho@cju.ac.kr

copy; 2021 Korea Trade Research Association. All rights reserved.

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the mid and long-term, as well as on social and cultural exchanges. New Southern countries are emerging as alternatives amid these economic changes.

The new southern country is an economic bloc that accounts for more than a quarter of the worlds population, and its import market is expanding significantly with rapid economic growth. Exports of goods to the new southern region in 2018 amounted to $1.7625 trillion, while imports amounted to $1.8997 trillion, accounting for 9.03 percent of global exports and 9.70 percent of imports. The new southern country is an economic bloc that is rapidly emerging as a new “super consumer market” by expanding market size and improving income levels along with rapid economic growth.

At the Korea-Indonesia Business Forum in 2017, Korea promoted the New Southern Policy (NSP), which raised the level of cooperation with the new southern countries under the core concept of so-called '3P' such as people, peace and co-prosperity communities. The aim is to enhance relations with the new southern states like those of the four neighboring powers: The United States, China, Japan, and Russia. The seven countries in the new southern region are among the top 20 exporting countries in Korea. And five countries - Vietnam, India, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand - whose global exports exceed $200 billion, with Koreas top 20 export destinations.

On the other hand, research on the agricultural export market among the trade sectors with new southern countries, which are emerging as Koreas new market, is still insufficient. Reflecting the recent K-Food fever that has centered around the ASEAN region, the need for various studies to expand the Korean agricultural export market is being emphasized. Unlike other goods, agricultural products are recognized as areas directly affected by climate conditions, and logistics activities have a significant impact on the trade market. Many previous studies have shown that the nations logistics efficiency has a significant impact on trade.

Under the circumstances in which strategic approaches to agricultural trade with the new southern countries are needed, it is thought that analyzing the impact of logistics efficien

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物流效率对韩国农产品出口到新兴南方国家的影响分析

摘要

目的——本文从物流效率的角度分析了韩国新南部国家农产品出口市场的影响。为扩大韩国农产品出口，纳入了物流绩效指数、国民收入、人均收入、消费物价指数、距离和FTA。通过实证分析，得出物流效率对韩国农产品出口的影响，并提出今后扩大出口的措施。

设计/方法——本研究的分析模型考虑了新兴南方国家对韩国农产品出口的进口需求因素。基于国际贸易效应分析中广泛使用的引力模型，在前人研究的基础上建立了研究模型。特别是，物流效率使用物流绩效指数来衡量对韩国农产品出口的影响，并通过推导出口扩张因素来检验这种影响。

研究结果——本研究的主要发现可以总结如下:新南方国家出口韩国农产品的物流效率越高，对扩大出口的作用就越直接。此外，还分析了韩国农产品出口的扩大对其他国家的国民收入、人均收入、消费价格指数、人口和自由贸易协定的积极影响。基于这些结果，强调了有效的物流管理在农产品出口中的重要性。

原创性/价值——物流效率对农产品出口的研究并不多。然而，先前针对制造业和其他领域的研究表明，物流效率对出口有直接影响。这项研究表明，韩国农产品在物流效率方面直接有效地出口到新的南方国家。这可能是认识到物流能力对确保新书和农产品安全的重要性的一个重要时间点。

1. 介绍

全球经济保持稳定增长，通过市场开放推动贸易自由化，韩国贸易额也快速增长。然而，最近，由于美中贸易战和日本实施出口自我监管，韩国的贸易面临新的挑战。新市场预计将对韩国贸易环境的未来变化以及韩国经济产生重大影响中期和长期，以及社会和文化交流。在这些经济变化中，新的南方国家正在崛起。

这个新的南方国家是一个经济集团，占世界人口的四分之一以上，其进口市场随着经济的快速增长而显著扩大。2018年，对新南部地区的出口总额为1.7625万亿美元，进口总额为1.8997万亿美元，占全球出口的9.03%

进口的9.70%。这个新的南方国家是一个经济集团，随着经济的快速增长，通过扩大市场规模和提高收入水平，它正迅速成为一个新的“超级消费市场”。

在2017年的韩-印尼商业论坛上，韩国宣传了新南方政策(NSP)，该政策在人民、和平和共荣共同体等所谓“3P”的核心理念下，提高了与新南方国家的合作水平。其目的是加强与新的南方各州的关系，就像四个邻国:美国、中国、日本和俄罗斯。新南部地区的七个国家是韩国前20大出口国。以及全球出口额超过2000亿美元的五个国家——越南、印度、马来西亚、新加坡和泰国，韩国的出口目的地排名前20位。

另一方面，对正在成为韩国新市场的新兴南方国家的贸易部门之间的农业出口市场的研究仍然不足。反映出最近以东盟地区为中心的韩国食品热，强调了开展各种研究以扩大韩国农产品出口市场的必要性。与其他商品不同，农产品被认为是直接受气候条件影响的领域，物流活动对贸易市场有重大影响。许多先前的研究表明，国家的物流效率对贸易有重大影响。

在与新南方国家的农产品贸易需要战略方法的情况下，分析新南方国家的物流效率对韩国农产品贸易的影响将提供有意义的启示。

在这项研究中，我们想分析韩国对新兴南方国家的整体出口和农产品出口的决定因素。我想分析一下新南方国家的物流绩效指数对韩国农产品出口的影响，并对扩大农产品出口提出建议。

2. 经验框架和假设

2.1. 新南方政策概述

“新南方政策”来自2017年11月9日的“韩国-印尼商务论坛”，旨在将与韩美日俄周边四大国在政治、经济、社会、文化等广泛领域的合作水平提升至相近水平。新南方政策背后的最大原因是对中国市场的吸引力下降，以及在不断变化的全球贸易环境中美国和中国之间的贸易争端造成的越来越大的不确定性。东盟国家同时与韩国和朝鲜保持外交关系，这凸显了它们作为一个合作区的重要性，因为人们对它们作为未来维护朝鲜半岛和平的协调者的期望有所上升。 物流效率对韩国农产品出口的影响分析产品销往新的南方国家。

通过这一政策推广，韩国寻求扩大人类交流，包括技术、文化和艺术，而不是以商品为导向的贸易。这项政策包含了东盟国家在交通和能源、水资源管理以及智能信息和通信等领域加强必要合作的决心。

从长远来看，旨在实现与韩国、东盟和印度的未来共同体的新南方政策的实施，不仅在经济部门，而且在政治和社会方面都有望取得良好的业绩。实施新南方政策以实现双赢和繁荣的共同体，旨在通过扩大与东盟和印度的经济合作之外的社会和文化交流，为共同增长奠定基础。

该政策的详细目标如图1所示。人民共同体旨在通过增加双向文化交流，包括扩大相互访问和保护相互利益，提高生活质量。双赢繁荣共同体旨在为双赢的经济合作建立互利和面向未来的基础，为促进贸易和投资创造制度基础，并侧重于为每个国家开发定制的合作模式。为了建立一个和平与安全的区域安全环境，和平界制定了一个目标，即加强合作，促进朝鲜半岛的和平与繁荣，并加强其应对该区域紧急情况的能力。

图一、新南方政策的目标

资料来源:新南方政策总统委员会(2019年)。

2.2. 与新的南方国家的贸易地位

新南方国家的成员是11个国家，包括东盟和印度。东盟是由不同经济规模的国家组成的联盟，分为四个集团。除了新加坡和文莱等高收入国家，中等收入国家如泰国、马来西亚，越南、菲律宾、印尼等低收入国家，也归为柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸等极度贫困国家。

再看新南方国家的地位，东盟截至2020年人口66728万，占世界人口的8.56%，尤其是印度人口13.5亿，占世界人口的17.37%。新南方国家是一个大型经济集团，占世界人口的25.93%(见lt;表.1gt;).

表1.新兴南方国家的经济规模

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